Morgan Stanley Insights on Bear Markets and Crypto

Intro

In the world of finance and investing, bear markets tend to evoke a sense of wariness, often leaving even seasoned investors on edge. The term describes a prolonged period of declining prices in a given market, and it can have profound implications, especially in the context of cryptocurrencies. Morgan Stanley, a heavyweight in the investment banking sector, has provided valuable insights into how bear markets function and how they intersect with the volatile cryptocurrency landscape.

Understanding the Morgan Stanley perspective requires delving into the intricate web of factors that create these market downturns. The volatility, particularly marked in the digital asset space, raises significant questions about investor behavior, structural elements in the market, and potential strategies to weather storms effectively.

This article aims to shed light on these facets. It will detail key terminologies that often pop up in discussions surrounding cryptocurrencies and bear markets, while also examining practical investment strategies that can stabilize portfolios in tumultuous times. Followers of financial markets, whether analysts, developers, or educators, will find insights that are not only relevant but also actionable.

Given that the cryptocurrency realm is still maturing, the relevance of institutional insights like those from Morgan Stanley's research cannot be overstated. These insights can not only help individual investors devote their strategies to better withstand downturns but can also influence institutional approaches to asset allocation in crypto spaces.

"Understanding the dynamics of bear markets presents an invaluable opportunity for investors to recalibrate their strategies and approach in a thoughtful manner."

In the following sections, we’ll unpack terms that are key to comprehending this volatile environment and explore investment strategies that lead to more informed decisions during bear markets.

Bear Markets Defined

Bear markets, often characterized by a persistent decline in investment prices, can significantly sway both investor sentiment and economic wellbeing. Understanding what qualifies as a bear market is the crucial first step in navigating these challenging waters. Morgan Stanley’s insights provide an invaluable lens through which we can observe and dissect bear markets, especially regarding how they interplay with various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.

The significance of defining bear markets in this article cannot be overstated. It helps set the stage for understanding broader market trends and institutional behaviors, ultimately aiding investors in crafting practical strategies. When investors grasp the fundamentals of bear markets, they stand a better chance at making informed decisions that can mitigate losses and even exploit potential opportunities. The clearer the definition and understanding, the more equipped one becomes.

Characteristics of Bear Markets

In general, a bear market is recognized as experiencing a decline of 20% or more in major market indexes over a sustained period, typically a two-month interval or longer. However, this numerical figure is not the sole determinant. Seasoned investors know that bear markets often come with certain characteristics:

Widespread Pessimism: During bear markets, investor sentiment shifts from optimism to apprehension, leading to a lack of confidence in the market.
Decreased Market Activity: There tends to be lower trading volume as investors hold onto cash or safe havens.
Negative Economic Indicators: These may include rising unemployment, sluggish GDP growth, and declining corporate profits, often reminding investors of an impending economic downturn.
Extend Panics: Once the fear kicks in, it snowballs, sending many rushing for the exit, which further exacerbates the downtrend.

Understanding these traits provides essential context for analyzing why and how these market shifts occur. They serve as indicators that can signal to investors when to be particularly cautious.

Historical Context of Bear Markets

Venturing into the annals of financial history reveals a persistent cycle of boom and bust that characterizes investing. Bear markets have occurred repeatedly, often shaped by unique environmental factors. For instance:

During the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, the NASDAQ fell dramatically, marking a protracted bear market that shook investor confidence and ultimately reshaped technology investment paradigms.
The financial crisis of 2008 led to a dramatic bear market, wherein the S&P 500 fell over 50%. This influenced not just the stock market but also real estate and consumer behavior, causing ripples throughout the global economy.

These historical episodes underscore the relevance of understanding bear markets. They provide lessons on resilience, adaptability, and the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective amidst short-term volatility.

“If you can’t handle the bear, don’t enter the cave.” This adage reminds investors that being forewarned is being forearmed. Historical context makes it clearer that there will always be pitfalls in the investment journey, but knowledge of past bear markets offers a map through potential future challenges.

By taking both characteristics and historical context into account, investors can better strategize their approaches during bear markets. This context forms a foundation for Morgan Stanley's insights into market behaviors and trends, as discussed in the following sections.

Morgan Stanley’s Market Insights

Morgan Stanley's insights into market dynamics hold profound significance for investors navigating the murky waters of bear markets. The firm's extensive research and analytics shed light on trends and behaviors that shape the financial landscape. This section aims to distill key elements of Morgan Stanley's market insights.

Investment strategies succeed or fail based largely on knowledge and foresight. By understanding how Morgan Stanley interprets market fluctuations, investors can better position themselves to weather downturns. The nuances in analysis may be overlooked in less comprehensive studies but can significantly impact returns when implemented.

Analysis of Market Trends

In analyzing market trends, Morgan Stanley emphasizes the cyclical nature of economic activity. This cyclical behavior offers a map of where to strategically place investments, especially considering the inevitable return of bear markets. For example, in previous downturns, sectors such as consumer discretionary often suffered more durably than sectors like healthcare.

Sector rotations: Morgan Stanley identifies which sectors typically outperform during rough patches. Understanding these rotations enables investors to capitalize on market behaviors rather than react to them.
Historical analysis: By examining patterns in historical data, the firm provides forecasts that help predict future movements. This foresight is essential amid the uncertainty that often accompanies bear markets.

Morgan Stanley doesn't just look at numbers but intertwines qualitative assessments as well. It indicates that sentiment often drives the market more than fundamentals during significant downturns. Investors should be wary of the psychological elements at play when trends shift.

Institutional Investor Behavior

The behavior of institutional investors can act as a guiding star for individual investors navigating bear territory. Morgan Stanley's insights reveal that institutional investors often have access to information that can be invaluable.

Institutional insights on cryptocurrency fluctuations

Timeliness of decision-making: Institutions can react faster to market shifts due to their structural capabilities, unlike many individual investors who may hesitate. Understanding this expediency can help personal investors gauge when to follow suit or diverge from prevailing market sentiment.
Bigger picture perspective: Institutional investors may look beyond short-term losses and have the resources to endure through prolonged downturns. Morgan Stanley reveals cases where these investors remained focused on long-term objectives, leading to recovery once the market turned around.

"By observing how institutional investors navigate challenges, individual investors can glean vital insights that lead to informed decisions."

The data suggest that institutional behavior often reflects confidence levels in the market. When these entities begin reallocating assets—especially in times of intense market volatility—it can serve as a signal for individual investors to reassess their strategies.

As we explore the next sections, keep in mind how Morgan Stanley's insights can help build a resilient investment framework, optimizing opportunities even amidst what can feel like a relentless market decline.

The Economic Indicators of a Bear Market

Understanding the economic indicators of a bear market is pivotal for anyone involved in investing or finance. Morgan Stanley, with its vast expertise, emphasizes these indicators as signposts that guide investors through turbulent waters. Identifying these markers early can empower investors to make informed decisions and tailor their strategies accordingly. The implications of ignoring these signals can be significant—either missed opportunities during market recoveries or exacerbated losses during downturns.

Market Volatility and Its Impact

Market volatility is like the weather; it can shift suddenly, catching even seasoned investors off guard. High levels of volatility often accompany bear markets, represented by sharp price fluctuations in stocks and other assets. Morgan Stanley’s analysis highlights this volatility as both a risk and a tool.

For instance, during periods of extreme volatility, the emotional reactions of investors can lead to panic selling or irrational exuberance. It's essential to understand that volatility presents opportunities as well—investors who can stomach the ride may find undervalued assets ripe for picking. Here are some key elements of market volatility to consider:

Investors' Response: Human behavior heavily influences market fluctuations. During downtrends, fear often spikes, leading to a sell-off that can trigger further declines.
Volatility Metrics: Tools such as the VIX, often dubbed the "fear index," measure anticipated volatility and can signal when a market correction may be coming. To navigate these ebbs and flows, familiarity with these metrics provides intuitive insights.
Timing Purchases: Amid high volatility, strategic timing becomes essential. Investors may employ techniques like dollar-cost averaging to mitigate risks as prices bounce around.

"Market volatility isn't just a phenomenon; it's a barometer of investor sentiment and can indicate massive buying or selling pressure."

Unemployment Rates and Economic Slowdown

Another critical economic indicator during a bear market is the rate of unemployment, which can reflect broader economic conditions. According to Morgan Stanley, rising unemployment often signals a slowdown that can exacerbate bear markets. People lose jobs, which impacts consumer confidence and spending, contributing to declining corporate revenues and profits.

Here are some considerations regarding unemployment:

Consumer Spending: Historically, decreased consumer spending leads to lower revenues for companies. When people are tight on money, they cut back on unnecessary expenses, which can spiral into more extensive economic issues.
Investment Trends: Analysts pay attention to industries more affected by job loss, such as retail and hospitality. If unemployment spikes in these sectors, it could signal a more profound economic malaise.
Policy Response: Governments often respond to rising unemployment with stimulus measures. The impact of such fiscal policy can either bolster market recovery or delay it, depending on the effectiveness of those measures.

In summary, understanding market volatility and unemployment rates equips investors with practical tools to anticipate market movements. As noted by Morgan Stanley, effective responses to these economic indicators can differentiate between weathering a storm gracefully or being swept away by it.

Impact of Bear Markets on Cryptocurrency

In considering the implications of bear markets on cryptocurrency, it's crucial to understand how these periods of economic decline affect not just traditional assets, but digital currencies as well. The interplay between market sentiment and the performance of cryptocurrencies often reveals deeper truths about both investor behavior and the underlying technology that supports these assets. As organizations like Morgan Stanley analyze these dynamics, investors can glean valuable insights that may influence their strategies during downturns.

Correlation with Traditional Markets

Cryptocurrencies have made quite a splash since their inception, leading many to question how they're positioned in relation to traditional markets. At first glance, one might assume cryptocurrencies operate in a vacuum, untethered to the fortunes of stocks, bonds, or commodities. However, a closer look reveals a more intertwined reality. During bear markets, many investors—facing losses in traditional assets—tend to cut down their overall investments, including their exposure to cryptocurrencies.

Research indicates a significant correlation exists between the performance of Bitcoin and broader market indices like the S&P 500. When these indexes take a dive, cryptocurrencies can mirror that sentiment, often leading to heightened volatility. This correlation can manifest in several ways:

Investor Psychology: Fear is contagious. As investors witness declines, a sense of dread can spread to crypto markets, causing prices to plummet regardless of the underlying technology's potential.
Liquidation of Assets: Many short-term crypto holders may liquidate their positions in times of uncertainty to cover losses in more traditional investments, further dragging down prices.
Market Sentiment: Positive or negative news in the stock market often spills over into the crypto realm; downturns can bring negative sentiment that impacts buy/sell decisions across the board.

Despite these correlations, some argue that cryptocurrencies can offer a hedge against traditional market downturns, especially as investors seek alternative assets in turbulent times. As the market continues to evolve, the relationship between crypto and traditional assets will be an area to watch closely.

Behavior of Crypto Assets in Bear Markets

Moving back to the behavior of cryptocurrencies during a bear market, it's evident that this is no time for the faint-hearted. Crypto assets often behave differently compared to traditional securities; they can experience erratic surges or plummets that stem from factors unique to the digital landscape. For instance, the absence of fundamentals, such as earnings or dividends, can lead to extreme price movements based on sentiment alone.

Here are some notable behaviors observed in cryptocurrencies during bear markets:

Increased Volatility: Unlike stocks, cryptocurrencies often exhibit higher volatility. Price swings can reach dizzying heights or depths in brief periods, driven by speculation, news, or even social media trends.
Market Structure Influence: Many cryptocurrencies exist in environments with fewer market participants compared to stocks. This lack of liquidity can amplify price movements during bear markets, making drastic changes more commonplace.
Alternative Use Cases: In some scenarios, crisis periods prompt innovative use cases for blockchain technology. Projects that can illustrate real-world applications may gain traction, attracting investment even as the broader market declines.
Investor Behavior: Long-term holders tend to view bear markets as opportunities to accumulate at lower prices. Meanwhile, newer investors, driven by emotional decision-making, might panic and exit the market, creating a significant divergence in behavior across different investor profiles.

Morgan Stanley's Recommendations for Investors

The landscape during bear markets can often feel like navigating through a thick fog, but insightful guidance can illuminate the path for investors. Morgan Stanley's recommendations draw on a wealth of market analysis and empirical data, aiming to provide robust strategies tailored to withstand the uncertainties posed by declining markets. Understanding these recommendations holds significant value; they offer advantages not just in profit protection but also in harnessing opportunities that arise during downturns.

Investor strategies during market downturns

Diversification Strategies

When the market takes a nosedive, one of the first pieces of advice Morgan Stanley underscores is the importance of diversification. This strategy doesn’t merely mean spreading investments across various assets—it's about creating a comprehensive portfolio that can withstand market volatility.

Asset Allocation: Rather than putting all eggs into one basket, investors should consider a mix of equities, fixed income securities, and alternative assets. This balance can act as a buffer, much like a well-constructed safety net under a tightrope walker.
Geographical Diversification: By investing in international markets, an investor can also mitigate risks associated with a single country's economic downturn. This might include exposure to emerging markets or even mature economies that may not be as affected by localized issues.
Sector Rotation: Understanding which sectors typically perform well during a bear market can guide investment decisions. For instance, consumer staples might be more resilient compared to discretionary sectors.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes that diversification is not a one-off task but rather an ongoing process. Investors are encouraged to review and rebalance their portfolios periodically to align with changing market conditions and risk appetites.

Investment Timing and Decision Making

Timing is critical in investments, particularly during bear markets. Morgan Stanley suggests that investors observe economic indicators and market trends before making decisions. Waiting for the right moment can spell the difference between minor setbacks and significant losses.

Market Sentiment Analysis: Investors should stay attuned to investor sentiment through surveys or reports. If fear is prevalent, it might indicate a potential buying opportunity, as market sentiment often does a U-turn at points of extreme negativity.
Phased Investment: Instead of diving headfirst into the market at once, a staggered approach often works wonders. By investing periodically, investors can average out their purchase prices, thus reducing the impact of volatility.
Setting Health Checks: Establishing clear metrics for portfolio performance can also guide decision-making. Regular evaluations can help investors keep a pulse on their investments and decide when to exit underperforming assets.

In summary, Morgan Stanley's recommendations for investors are not merely about avoiding loss; they represent a holistic approach to navigating the complexities of bear markets. By implementing thoughtful diversification strategies and making informed decisions based on market indicators, investors can build resilience, adapting to the unpredictable nature of market cycles.

Psychological Aspect of Bear Markets

Understanding the psychological aspect of bear markets is crucial for both investors and analysts alike. During these turbulent times, emotions can run high, often overshadowing rational decision-making. By delving into the psyche of market participants, we can grasp how fear and sentiment shape market dynamics.

Investor Sentiment and Fear

Fear is a common thread that weaves through the fabric of a bear market. When the markets begin to decline, a sense of panic sets in. Investors may find themselves in a tornado of emotions, fearing economic doom and the potential loss of their hard-earned investments. It is essential to recognize how this sentiment affects trading behavior.

Herd Mentality: Often, investors mimic the actions of their peers, leading to a panic sell-off. The phrase "jumping off the ship" comes to mind, as individuals rush to exit the market, fearing that they might be the last to do so.
Confirmation Bias: Investors often seek information that aligns with their fears, ignoring any data that contradicts their concerns. This cognitive bias can lead to a skewed perception of market realities, pressuring them to make impulsive decisions.

Morgan Stanley highlights that understanding investor sentiment can provide valuable insights into market movements. Recognizing when fear drives the market allows savvy investors to capitalize on opportunities while others flee. By shifting the focus from rampant fear to informed analysis, investors can avoid costly mistakes.

Long-term vs. Short-term Mindset

Shifting focus between long-term and short-term mindsets can play a vital role in how individuals experience bear markets. Short-term thinkers may fall prey to fear-based selling, while those with a long-term vision often weather the storm more effectively.

Short-term Mindset: These investors are likely to sell at the first sign of trouble. They tend to focus on immediate losses instead of considering the potential for recovery. As Morgan Stanley notes, this reactive approach often leads to regret when the market rebounds, as they miss out on opportunities for gains.
Long-term Mindset: By contrast, long-term investors usually remain the course. They adopt a viewpoint that short-term volatility is a part of the investment cycle. They look past the current downturn, often rebalancing their portfolios rather than liquidating assets. Understanding this mindset can foster resilience during challenging periods.

To summarize, recognizing the psychological aspects at play during a bear market can be the difference between success and failure. By acknowledging emotions like fear and adopting a rational focus, investors are better equipped to navigate the choppy waters ahead. As sentiment shifts, those who maintain a balanced outlook can seize the moment while others remain tethered to their anxieties.

"In the midst of chaos, there lies opportunity." - Sun Tzu

For those who wish to explore further into the nuances of market psychology, resources from Wikipedia and Britannica may provide additional insights.

Case Studies from Previous Bear Markets

Examining past bear markets is crucial for understanding the dynamics of financial downturns. These case studies not only reveal what occurred during those periods but also offer invaluable lessons for investors, analysts, and institutions. By studying these instances, one can identify patterns, analyze responses, and implement strategies that could mitigate risks in future downturns. Ultimately, recognizing these historical events can empower stakeholders to navigate turbulent waters with greater confidence.

Lessons from the Financial Crisis

The 2008 financial crisis stands as a formidable case study in the realm of bear markets. It was a period when the global economy was rocked by the collapse of major financial institutions due to exposure to subprime mortgages. Many investors felt the tremors as stock markets plummeted, indicating just how a crisis could ripple through the economy.

The most significant takeaway from this crisis is the importance of due diligence. Investors who relied solely on ratings from credit agencies without thorough analysis found themselves in treacherous waters. The lack of transparency and the facade of stability led many to overlook inherent risks.

Additionally, the crisis illustrated how interconnected global markets are. A downfall in the US financial sector had cascading effects worldwide, illustrating that investors must keep an eye on international cues.

Here are several lessons drawn from this catastrophe:

Diversification is Key: Investors with diversified portfolios faced less severe repercussions than those who concentrated their investments in a few sectors.
Risk Assessment: Understanding risk profiles of investments can determine long-term stability. Assets deemed secure may hold hidden dangers.
Adaptability: The ability to pivot and adjust strategies swiftly can help mitigate loss during crises.

"In business, instincts are a fine line between losing and achieving prosperity; heed them wisely."

Evolving market dynamics in bear conditions

Analyzing the COVID-19 Market Dip

Fast forward to early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic ushered in another bear market. Its sudden onset caught many off guard, resulting in one of the sharpest declines on record. Unlike the 2008 crisis, where subprime mortgages triggered the wave, COVID-19 stemmed from a global health crisis, highlighting the unpredictable nature of market influences.

Investor sentiment plummeted as uncertainty loomed, showcasing how psychology heavily influences market dynamics. Fear, rooted in the unknown, led to widespread sell-offs, demonstrating the necessity for emotional resilience during financial uncertainty.

The dramatic fluctuations observed during this period brought several key insights to light:

Emphasis on Cash Reserves: The pandemic emphasized the need for liquidity. Investors who maintained cash reserves were better positioned to capitalize on distressed assets amid falling prices.
Evolving Consumer Behavior: With global lockdowns, various sectors reacted differently. Companies in technology and e-commerce thrived, while travel and hospitality crumbled. Understanding sector dynamics can lead to more informed decisions.
Long-term Vision: Investors focused on long-term growth, rather than short-term fluctuations, fared better as markets rebounded post-crisis, reinforcing the age-old adage: patience is a virtue.

In light of these case studies, the key takeaway remains the same: preparedness and a keen awareness of historical contexts can significantly influence investment strategies during bear markets.

Future Projections for Bear Markets

Understanding future projections for bear markets is crucial for investors and analysts alike. This section aims to shed light on the anticipated evolution of market dynamics, enabling stakeholders to prepare strategically. The projections are not merely guesswork; they are based on systematic analysis of historical data and emerging trends. By decoding Morgan Stanley's insights into these projections, readers can uncover action steps that anticipate changing tides in the financial landscape.

The ability to anticipate market shifts can offer a significant advantage. It allows investors to adjust their portfolios proactively, potentially mitigating losses during downturns. Moreover, understanding where the markets might head can foster informed decision-making based on rational analysis rather than emotional reactions.

As we move forward, it’s essential to consider both quantitative data and qualitative indicators that signal a changing market environment. Given the intricacies of global finance, these projections can be treated as compasses that guide investment strategies.

Emerging Trends to Monitor

Trends that emerge during uncertain market conditions often provide insights into potential shifts. Investors ought to keep an eye on a few key areas:

Technological Advancements: Innovations like artificial intelligence, blockchain, and machine learning are shaping market behavior. These technologies can either enhance trading efficiency or disrupt traditional financial models, leading to new market adaptations.
Regulatory Changes: Governments across the world can dynamically influence market conditions. Keeping informed about new guidelines, especially regarding cryptocurrencies and digital assets, is critical for understanding market sentiments.

"Staying ahead of trends is not just about observation, it’s about strategic engagement."

Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Changes in how consumers invest (like the growing preference for sustainable investments) can directly affect market assets. Understanding these shifts informs better risk assessments.
Global Supply Chain Dynamics: Events impacting global supply chains, such as geopolitical tensions and pandemics, can indicate economic vulnerability, suggesting caution.

Impact of Global Events on Markets

Global events serve as pivotal moments in market history, with a far-reaching impact on investor behavior and market trajectories. Some important factors to consider when analyzing this impact include:

Geopolitical Tensions: Situations like military conflicts or trade wars can create market uncertainty, often leading to rapid sell-offs or surges based on investor sentiment.
Economic Policy Changes: Actions taken by central banks, such as changes in interest rates or monetary policy, play a crucial role in moderating economic environments. These actions can lead to immediate reactions in the stock market.
Natural Disasters and Pandemics: Unexpected natural occurrences can disrupt economic stability. The recent COVID-19 pandemic highlighted this fact, dramatically affecting global markets and investor confidence.
Economic Data Releases: Regular reports, such as employment figures, GDP growth, and inflation rates, are significant indicators. Market reactions to these reports can set the tone for bull or bear sentiments.

As we assess future projections for bear markets, considering global influences allows investors to not only prepare for possible downturns but also take advantage of opportunities when markets realign.

For detailed resources, investors may refer to official economic analysis sites like Federal Reserve Economic Data or reports from Morgan Stanley at Morgan Stanley Research.

Culmination: Preparing for Market Shifts

In a world where financial tides can turn in the blink of an eye, understanding how to prepare for market shifts becomes not just a matter of prudence, but a cornerstone of successful investment. This article, informed by Morgan Stanley’s analysis, underscores the critical need for investors to develop a proactive approach towards bear markets. By grasping the nuances of market dynamics, investors can effectively navigate the tumultuous waters of economic downturns. The insights shared throughout this discussion serve as a navigation chart, guiding both individual and institutional investors through the storms of financial uncertainty.

Developing a Resilience Strategy

The formation of a resilience strategy is central to thriving in bear markets. Such a strategy isn’t merely about waiting for the clouds to clear. Instead, it encompasses a multifaceted approach aimed at ensuring that when the going gets tough, your investment portfolio holds steady.

Key elements include:

Diversifying investments: Spreading your capital across various asset classes helps to mitigate risk. This could mean investing in sectors that tend to perform well during bear markets, such as consumer staples or utilities.
Setting clear financial goals: Knowing what you want to achieve in the long run can help you remain focused, even when markets dip.
Having an exit plan: Knowing when to cut your losses or take profits can be invaluable. This isn’t about panicking during downturns, but rather making informed decisions based on market analysis.
Regularly reviewing your portfolio: Staying in touch with how your investments are performing can help identify areas that may need adjustment.

Moreover, educating oneself about market cycles can empower investors with a greater understanding of the underlying principles that drive fluctuations. Engaging with resources like Investopedia, or even tools available through financial advisory services, can arm investors with the necessary knowledge to weather any storm.

Resources for Continuous Learning

In bear markets, knowledge is not just power; it’s survival. Continuous learning is an effective tool for maintaining a sharp, critical eye on the markets. Here’s how investors can keep their skills honed and their insights sharp:

Financial newsletters and market reports: Subscriptions to publications from firms like Morgan Stanley or reputable financial analysts can provide crucial up-to-date information.
Online courses: Platforms like Coursera or edX offer courses that can deepen understanding of market behavior, investment strategies, and economic indicators.
Market simulators: Using simulation platforms can provide real-world trading experience without the financial risk, helping to refine strategies in a risk-free environment.
Forums and community discussions: Engaging with like-minded individuals on Reddit or investor forums can allow for the exchange of ideas and strategies that may not be considered in isolation.

Investors who prioritize education and adaptability can harness even bear markets into opportunities. By maintaining an ongoing commitment to learning, they can keep their strategies relevant, informed, and, most importantly, resilient.